 Common scene for Azerbaijan cities: the dirty – faced boy comes to the "nonlocal” and begins to insult him. As soon as "nonlocal” tries to call this impudent person to the order, even if it is only by using words, from the gateway depart appears the band of dregs armed by sticks and chains, and they howling "why do you offend the child ?!” begin to beat up the "stranger”.
I am released of "the happiness” to live in this kind of society for many decades already. I remembered it with the acquaintance of the speech of the Deputy foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Araz Azimov, who came forward at the conference in Baku with: "New Strategy of NATO: The Partners contribution to the consideration”.
It is necessary to say that A. Azimov - not an ordinary Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, like Khalaf Khalafov, who is there only in order to thoughtlessly read foisted speeches. Azimov rightfully considered as the generator of the ideas of Azerbaijan’s propaganda and agitation section, as the leader of the pyramid on composition and distribution of anti-Armenian slander built in Azerbaijan. The basic official Azimov’s occupation is to throw new ideas, directed toward the libel of Armenian people, to blow up the good image of Armenian in the entire world. Furthermore, Azimov controls the numerous mass media outlets in Azerbaijan, it was his initiative to generate them, and now they feed from the common dirty boiler of disinformation, slander and frank lie. Azimov’s words and statements should be included with the special attention, because they always signal about the starting of new insinuations directed toward the discrimination of Armenian people. Furthermore, Azimov is the official mouthpiece of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy.
From this point of view it is necessary to examine the appearance of Azimov at the conference, where he approved the new ideas of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. If briefly, the essence of his appearance there consisted of the following: a) proposal about the conclusion of the bilateral agreements between NATO and country-partners that will provide besides the responsibility and the obligations of sides, also the security guarantees of country- partners; b) the reorganization of the acting mechanism of decision making in NATO on the basis of consensus. Azimov considers that decision making on the basis of consensus "eliminates itself and it can lead to the division inside the alliance”.
Azimov’s statements unequivocally indicate the subsequent policy of Azerbaijan according to the relation with NATO. Clearly fearing undisguised appeal to NATO with the request about the method, Baku will attempt to obtain security guarantees from this organization. In this case there are no doubts about fact that 24th of November, during the visit to Moscow, Aliev will explain to President Medvedev that Azerbaijan attempts to secure by guarantees from the possible conflict with Iran. But to Iranians Aliev will present his strange request by the attempts to be protected from the possible aggression from the side of Russia. Well, logic exists in both of the "explanations”: in the case with Iran - it is a conflict in the Caspian Region in the August 2001, while in the case with Russia - determination of Moscow to protect Abkhazia and South Osetia from Tbilisi.
Nothing you will say, the policy of Baku toward the North Atlantic alliance although dirty, sufficiently clever. Especially taking into the account the fact how badly hidden the opposition between NATO and Russia. At the same time, Azerbaijan, attempting to keep place on two chairs, ventured the dangerous game, in which he tries to implicate both of the world poles. And Azerbaijan doesn’t mind to push off these poles.
At the same time, Baku constantly demonstrates readiness for the solution of Nagorno- Karabakh’s problem by using power and military way. In this case it’s no longer important, if Azerbaijan is really ready to war, or if Baku confident in the favorable end of the renewal of military operations possibility. Today officials of Azerbaijan, declaring the readiness of the beginning of military operations, clearly bluff, and they blackmail the external world, especially Europe, extremely interested in the uninterrupted delivery of energy resources from the Caspian region. But we talk about today. Since Azerbaijan actually is prepared for the possible, in practice even inevitable future war.
The victory of Azerbaijan in the future war, by contemporary arrangement of forces appears more than doubtful. This state of affairs will be preserved for a long time. For this reason Azerbaijan searches for the allies, most probable of them is Turkey. However, Turkey, by being the member of NATO, is not free in its solutions by the entrance into the military actions. So, Azimov’s proposal at the conference in Baku - to reorganize the acting mechanism of decision making in NATO on the basis of consensus – is straightly directed toward unbinding of Turkey’s hands.
The most interesting fact is that this proposal is made with the thought of the future, when now oppositional forces prove to be in authority in Turkey. In Baku they understand that the party of Validity and Development ruling in Turkey carries out another, different from the aspirations of Baku, policy. Therefore the problem of removal of this party from the authority becomes one of the Baku tasks in foreign policy. Azerbaijan makes efforts on the solution of this task.
From this point of view, the planned adjusting of the relations between Armenia and Turkey, even if it sounds weird, helps to Azerbaijan, since it makes possible to influence some nationalistically oriented circles in Turkey. This is a winning card, especially taking into account all of the civilizational and religious differences between the Armenian people and the Turks. Anti-Armenian propaganda that had place in Turkey for many decades also should be considered. At the same time, Azerbaijan, which always declares the blood relationship of Transcaucasian and Anatolian Turks, began "gas war” against Ankara, attempting to shake that fragile positions of Validity and Development party. Here we should say that this policy had been built smart, since Turkish peasant perceives only the consequences of this undeclared war, while the true culprit of his economic confusions remains obscure for him.
Thus, working for the future, Azerbaijan approached the conversion of two most important for itself strategic tasks: the neutralization of the military- allied connections of Armenia (first of all, ODKB) and the guaranteed aid of Turkey in the probable future war against the Armenian states. Here the purposes pursued by the Azimov statements at the conference in Baku. Foreign policy of Armenia must be structured into account of all of these realities.
Levon MELIK-SHAHNAZARIAN
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