Russia cannot afford cutting gas to Ukraine for a second year in a row as it would have too much to lose, including Europe's support for its key gas projects at a time when its European gas market share is shrinking.
But, despite a virtual consensus among analysts that a cut in supplies to Ukraine and the subsequent stoppage of flows to Europe would equal political and economic suicide for Moscow, sceptics say Kremlin policies could be still driven by apparently irrational decision making.
Following are some scenarios of how Russia-U
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