In order to return to the New Middle East
The last US combat brigade crossed the Iraqi border with Kuwait. More than 115,000 American soldiers left Iraq. Less than 50,000 troops of the renamed into "the brigade of aid and support” remained in the country. According to the withdrawal plan they will leave Iraq not later than the end of 2011. Military operation "Shock and Awe” begun 7 years that led to the death of about million of Iraqis and over 4,400 American soldiers comes to an end. War begins.
There is no reason to remind that Iraq’s occupation by the American troops happened in spite of any norms of international law, including the UN Security Council resolution. Remains to note, it became a beginning of a great war, which has not begun yet. Mentioned victims, as though as sad it may sound, only prelude to what will happen in the vast region after the complete withdrawal of Americans. Since, USA has successfully revived mutual hatred in representatives of different nations and confessions of the Middle East experienced by centuries. American assurances about the establishment of the capable to ensure order in the country Iraqi police are daily refuted by the terror acts with numerous victims.
In the "post-American” Iraq with each day flare up armed confrontation of the Shia Arabs with Sunni Arabs, and Arabs (regardless of religious beliefs) with the Kurds. The permanent invasions of Turkish troops (long ago) and Iranian troops (recently) in Iraq. Note also active intervention of Syria and Saudi Arabia in the developing events in Iraq. Finally, consider ethno-religious contradictions between "interested” in Iraq states, as well as uncontrolled flow into the country of various Islamic terrorists. Tension grows each hour; the result won’t seem little to anyone, including neighboring countries.
Illegally started occupation of Iraq initiated universal mutual hatred, and without solving this problem troops should not be withdrawn. The region will almost certainly be involved in the war of all against all. The question arises naturally: doesn’t Washington realize it? If they do realize the seriousness of situation, then what is a purpose of troops’ withdrawal?
To answer this question, will have to recall the political-geographical "discovery”, made by the former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: New Middle East. Rice used this term for the first time in June 2006 in Jerusalem, it startled many political scientists and politicians who attempt to understand what is there under these words. Explanations were given almost immediately: in the "Blood Borders” article of the June issue of Pentagon published journal "Armed Forces Journal”, signed by the veteran of US Intelligence Col. Ralph Peters. Article had an intriguing subtitle: "How a better Middle East would look”. Early July same year was published his book "Never Quit the Fight”. Both in the article and book Peters notes that the injustice degree of the borders very important in the relations between peoples and countries. He suggests new, "fair” borders redrawing in the Middle East, not by diplomatic, but by military methods. "… 5000 years of history prove that ethnic cleansings and wars are the only effective ways” – he believes and offers to change the New Middle East borders by these methods.
New borders NME (http://www.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=269) according to Peters plan: a) Free Kurdistan on the territory now belonging to Iran, Iraq, Syria and lands under Turkish control (Western Armenia); b) Iraq’s Sunni regions are transferred to Syria, which subtracted from its coast for Lebanon; c) on Iraq’s South created new Shia Arab States, with part of Iran’s coastal territory and Saudi Arabia, also, completely the United Arab Emirates; d) Saudi Arabia, besides "already lost” coastal oil-rich regions gives its south-eastern part to Yemen. Proposed also to separate Mecca and Medina from Saudi Arabia in order to create kind of a Free Islam Center; e) Suggested to "divide” Iran as follows: entire north of the country transferred to Azerbaijan, significant part of the western provinces would be given to Kurdistan, south, as it was stated to Shia Arab States, as well as to the new state - Free Baluchistan. As consolation, Iran will get western regions of Afghanistan; f) Afghanistan obtains Pakistan regions populated by Pushtuns that also gets rid of provinces populated by Baluch.
Remained "changes” are less significant, although visible on the map: let’s only report that Kars region with Mount Ararat is proposed to return to Armenia. Poor consolation before the death, the loss of the common border with Iran replaced by the border with enormous Azerbaijan will inevitably lead to it, same as appearance of even bigger neighboring state with the immoderate ambitions - Kurdistan.
No doubts, plans of the "New Middle East” construction became one (not the only) motivation for the US invasion in Iraq. However, USA didn’t have enough forces and resources to implement this grand scale and monstrous plan. Then, Washington decided to "entrust” the realization of the bloody borders redrawing to the existing, now, in the region states.
The USA made every effort to create a pre-war situation on the "testing-ground” of the Middle East, today there are no doubts: US troops withdrawal will lead to unprecedented surge of terrorism, chaos and… war. When confronting sides forces will be exhausted, and people will get tired of war, America will return to the region: in hypostasis of a peacemaker. Unfortunately, the situation now develops the way when it’s not possible to rely on wisdom of people of the region. War almost became necessity, in the region there are no people or states that won’t be affected. Today, when 50.000 US soldiers are still in Iraq, by the reports from Baghdad easy to notice how sharply grew the terror escalation.
It is interesting that in spring same 2006 US soldiers conducted military-post exercises, in course of them was worked out assistance to Azerbaijan in the aggression of a neighboring state against it, tentatively called Ahurastan (camouflaged Iran). According to "Fort Leavenworth lamp” plan of the exercises was developed by the General Staff Department of US Defense, and studies themselves were conducted in its leading educational institution. According to the concept "Ahurastan” blows Azerbaijan, and USA protects the oil Republic using all kinds of troops. According to "outcome” of military exercises, Americans succeed to discard the army of "Ahurastan” from the walls of Baku, but the southern part of Azerbaijan remains under control of attackers. Remarkable, the "southern region” of Azerbaijan is Talysh historically populated by Talyshs, indigenous to the region Iranian-speaking people. Then, Azerbaijan "liberated” from the "aggressor” geographically increased due to the Turkic-speaking northern provinces of Iran. Strictly speaking, the "results” of exercises fully superimposed on the "Peters map”, which once again points to the place of its "birth”.
Taking into account given above, it’s difficult to overestimate the importance of the Protocol on the Russian military base in Armenia guaranteeing safety of the Armenian states from the Middle East big meat grinder. Armenia needs neutrality, and there is no reason to interfere in other people’s game. However, sometimes neutrality is forced to lean on the power that gives us this Protocol. As well as, Russia’s assistance in Armenian’s acquisition of modern and compatible weapons. Moscow is well aware that fall of "Armenian bastion” inevitably will lead to the expansion of the "New Middle East” definition toward Volga and Ural.
Levon MELIK-SHAHNAZARYAN
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