 Even if it would be possible to establish lasting peace, the one who would forego internal readiness for the physical fight will eventually lead to death. Karl Jaspers
Analysis of states’ geopolitical power makes possible to assert that there are two states in the region of Asia Minor and South Caucasus that could be distinguished out of seven. Armenia (under Armenia we mean the Republic of Armenia and Artsakh Republic) is in the second, weaker group, which includes all post-Soviet South Caucasus states; however, the aggregate consideration of criteria of states’ power let us state that Armenia pulls ahead in the second group of countries. The first among outsiders, this role hardly can become complacent. Current Armenian tendencies to blame only authorities in all problems are one-sided and/or show unwillingness and inability to perceive realities adequately. Armenia experiences difficulties not only because of government’s mistakes or incompetence which in some cases also take place, but because of its spatial, geopolitical insufficiency. Any nation (state) needs living space, providing it dynamic development. Narrowing of nation’s living space that often happed violently inevitably turns into intra-national stress, deterioration of nation’s social conditions, and, as consequence, people’s exodus from the country. Modern Armenia experiencing spatial insufficiency is sad confirmation of aforesaid. That is why in the medium term Armenia should be considered as a model-prototype of the future self-sustaining Armenian state, able to accommodate required number of indigenous population ensuring its spatial - geopolitical significance. State endowed with spatial adequacy able to accommodate and provide decent life to large number of people. Herewith, area of state and number of its population are not in direct to each other. Even small increase in state’s area, with condition of spatial insufficiency liquidation is able to provide dramatic increase in number of its population, create conditions for repatriation and significant increase in birth rate. Despite great importance of territory, state’s spatial sufficiency is not in direct proportion from size of its area. In the first place, it’s provided by innate (natural) borders, free enters to internationally important transport communications, several climatic zones and other factors. From this perspective, it should be recognized that Armenian spatial insufficiency is mainly caused by lack of natural borders and free enter to transport communications. Artsakh war, despite military successes of Armenian side, hasn’t solved these problems, and therefore it cannot be considered victorious. Reintegration of limited part of the Armenian territories wasn’t conducive to solve the problem, since natural borders are possible only in south and north (Mravsky range). Meanwhile, existing eastern border of NKR, in its entirety, is "oppressive factor” substantially limiting spatial sufficiency of Armenian states. To some extent factor of spatial Armenian insufficiency affects Azerbaijan too. Consider that Western border of this formation has same disadvantages, that NKR’s eastern border, since there no natural obstacles or barriers. Conclusion from the foregoing can’t have another interpretation: existing steppe border sooner or later must undergo correction, since it cannot suit Armenia or Azerbaijan. Today Yerevan, Stepanakert, and Baku prepare, perhaps unconsciously, to future border’s change. Information war started by Azerbaijan is critical component of preparatory work; we have no right to underestimate it. Azerbaijan’s purpose clear: "move” border to Syunik mountain range. Our task should be as clear determined, according to geopolitical laws (political geography), Armenian-Azerbaijani border should be established on Kura river. As you can understand, the matter here is not only in restoration of historical justice, although this fact should be taken into account. Specifically, Koura must be perceived as natural border between Armenia and its extremely hostile neighbor. Of course, would be wrong to idealize this river as natural border; however, for current military-technical Azerbaijan’s abilities actually small and not very deep Koura is fairly insurmountable and, conversely, easily protected barrier. Transfer of border to Koura, among other things, has essential value for partial elimination of Armenia’s spatial insufficiency, which shortly benefit country’s development. Armenia and Azerbaijan both clearly understand their problem; hopefully I make mistake but Baku prepares to solve them more actively than Armenian capitals. This confirmed by Azerbaijan’s huge information activity, aimed on weakening and reducing Armenian nation’s possibilities and undermining its international image. Mentioned propagandic Azerbaijan’s activity must be perceived as threat requiring adequate response of Armenia’s national security. We’ve been challenged, and we are obliged to react accordingly, since our result to some extent depends on it, same as result of unavoidable collision. Adequate response requires not only effort’s consolidation, which is very important, but also study of pros and cons of both sides. Thus, Armenia is the only state of region that has no preconditions for civil war. Completely different situation in other states of the region, with exception of Iran where under certain circumstances also possible ethnic clashes (province Azerbaijan and Kurds supported by Ankara). Armenia’s policy toward Azerbaijan (and not only) must be preventive, including enemy weaknesses: existence of ethnic, religious and racial conflicts among Azerbaijani population along with unformed nation, cultivation of Aliev’s despotism and expressed social inequality, corruption etc… Term "preemption” doesn’t indicate purely military action. Military actions caused only by exceptional necessity, when all other methods of success achievement are exhausted. Resorting to use military force would be justified only after thorough work of ideology, intelligence and studying enemy strengths and weaknesses. In turn, Armenia need to get rid of the same corruption, eliminate gaps in social integration, develop united position on priorities of foreign policy… War didn’t end, it’s just (temporarily?) took different character. At this stage, Armenia obligated to use: a) high scientific and intellectual potential; b) better (comparing to neighbors) possession of modern technology achievements; c) population’s ideology; d) Army’s depoliticization; e) impeccable society organization based on national traditions; f) constant engagement of nation’s spiritual forces… All mentioned and not mentioned components of Armenia’s readiness to confrontation and armed conflicts are equally important, and their priority could be changed at will. Since refusal of internal readiness for the fight will eventually lead to death.
Levon MELIK-SHAHNAZARYAN
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