The past week had been marked in Azerbaijan by two public appearances of Ilham Aliyev, in which the President of this republic recorded very unequivocal bellicose statements. In this case the second appearance of Aliev, that occurred during the opening of settlement for the refugees in the Geranboyskiy region had been designed almost in the form of promise to begin the new aggression against the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in the case of the futility of the Sargsyan – Aliev meeting on November 22 in Munich.
If during the first appearance Aliev limited his speech to the dosed threat: "Our army is becoming stronger. We are negotiating now, but at the same time, at any time we must be ready to liberate our land from the invaders in a military way. ", then after few days after that they acquired certainty. In particular, Aliev said: "We come to this meeting with our program. It must play the decisive role in the process of negotiations. If this discussion will also be futile, then our hopes for negotiations will be exhausted”. In case if during the meeting in Munich won’t be achieved desirable for Azerbaijan progress, Aliev did not exclude the possibility of the fact that his country will resort to the military way of solution, since he will loose hopes for negotiations. "If our hope for negotiations will be exhausted, then there is no another way (except military - L. M.- Sh.). We must also be ready for this”, he added, emphasizing that Azerbaijan "has the complete right to free its land by the military way”.
Between these two appearances of Aliev, there were some other bellicose speeches of the Minister of Foreign Affairs E. Mamedyarov, the head of the press center of Department of Foreign Policy E. Polukhov, vice-speaker of Milli Mejlis (parliament) Z. Askerov, and also the number of less noticeable personalities, as if to confirm the real readiness of Azerbaijan to renew military actions in Karabakh.
Thus, on the eve of the summit Ilham Aliyev had been noticed by the most martial rhetoric in the time of his presidency. It does not seem that by his appearance the President of Azerbaijan attempted to act on Serj Sargsyan. Aliev is far from naive person. Besides the fact that he knows the President of Armenia well enough and he is familiar with his biography, he also must be informed about the determination of Armenian people to defend the right of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic on the national sovereignty. Therefore it is necessary to understand, that the militarist rhetoric of Aliev intended for others. But in this case the bellicose statements of the President of Azerbaijan are no longer threat, but blackmail.
Today Europe, USA, Russia, Iran and Turkey extremely interested in the processes occurring in the region of the South Caucasus. Each of these poles and states has its own interests in Transcaucasia, and there is no way to realize their plans under the war time or even the threat of the renewal of military actions. It is not surprising that they are vitally interested in the retention of political and, especially, military stability in the region. And although the interests of the forces have crossed in Transcaucasia and even contradict each other, the competing sides have one special feature: they all are unconditional supporters of peace in the region.
Briefly situation appears as follows: The USA and Europe against the war in the region, since it will deprive their (especially Europe) safety of the energy resources import from the Caspian region and will plunge into the monopoly dependence on Russia. Political and economic interests are tightly interlaced for the West in the region of the South Caucasus. First, the West is going to approach control over the Caspian energy resources, second, West is going to push aside Russia to the periphery of world policy. There is no way to bind these plans with the war in Transcaucasia.
Turkey, with the entire ambiguity of its relations with Armenia, also aches for the peace, since the renewal of war will place fatty cross on its aspiration to become the part of the European states family. War will become the last nail into the coffin of Nabukko gas pipe that had been cherished by the West (Europe and the USA), the construction of this gas pipeline is under the question even without it. Finally, Turkey, by being the member of NATO, doesn’t have a right to independently make decisions about the entering war, but the refusal of aid, or even passive aid to Azerbaijan, will lead to the unavoidable fall of the Justice and Development party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, abbreviated AK Parti or AKP) it will also lead to the fall of Erdogan and Gul. Today in the opposition they proved to be not only "the party of Ataturk” - Republican People's Party of Turkey - but also army generals, this difficult situation threatens to the ruling regime in Ankara by resignation and even by the probable imprisonment.
Azerbaijan has special relations to Turkey and, especially, to the ruling party of Justice and Development. It seems to be that they are brothers and "one people, two states”, but their interests do not coincide. It looks like the "divergent interests” of Baku and Ankara, pushed Aliev to blackmail not only Turkey but also Russia with the West. But Aliev, who nakedly supports Turkish opposition, missed: the West holds Turkey on the rigid guide now, and in this question it undoubtedly supports AKP and Gul with Erdogan. Since for the West moderate islamism that collaborates with Europe and USA, is much more advantageous than racial nationalism - panturkism.
Russia has its own relations to the conflict. Moscow understands that in any possible outcome war will lead to the irreversible "withdrawal” of Azerbaijan to the West. It won’t matter with or without Karabakh. Azerbaijan ties to Russia only the outstanding problem of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and any outcome of possible war will put the end to this uncertainty. The proclaimed gravity of Azerbaijan to Russia logically will have its end with the war. Defeat in this war will deprive Azerbaijan’s hope for the occupation of Nagorno- Karabakh Republic, and therefore, of aid or at least the neutrality of Russia, in the case of victory, Baku will cease to require both Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
So, is war necessary to Azerbaijan itself? Perhaps, it is necessary as a solution of any strategic or important problems for the state? The answer will be negative again.
In spite of the fact of frantic propaganda, Baku realizes the insolvency (legal and historical) of its claims to the territory of NKR. Karabakh is necessary to Azerbaijan as a territory for the growing population and as the rehabilitatation of Aliev clan’s authority, whose founder suffered crushing defeat in Artsakh. Although official Baku, in a certain degree, is the hostage of its own propaganda, the authority of this republic understands that there is a posted danger of the war that threatens to it. The apparent imperious resources of the ruling clan in Azerbaijan will evaporate in instant as soon as the first hundreds of killed victims at the Karabakh front would be transport into Azerbaijan. War, if it begins, promises many tens of thousands of victims lives.
Thus, we are right to establish that, at least, at this stage of history, Azerbaijan cannot allow itself luxury to renew military actions. If Azerbaijan will desire to solve problem of NKR by military way war would be possible only when the interest of the West in the natural gas deposits of Caspian Region will run low, for that, or another reason. Meantime, Ilham Aliyev only bluffs, blackmailing the interested states of the world by its readiness for the war. The President of Azerbaijan clearly hopes that the frightened by his threats above-mentioned states and blocks will force NKR to obey the will of aggressive neighbor and to return under the yoke of Azerbaijan.
The reaction of mediators in regulating of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict proved to be predictable: they reproached Aliev for his "superfluously bellicose statements”, but they gave him the possibility "to save the face” in Azerbaijan (today all sides are interested in the stability of this republic). The phrase of the French cochairman of Minsk group OSCE on regulating of conflict is remarkable: "The Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serj Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev achieved understanding in the direction of signing the frame agreement, that subsequently will become base for the signing of base agreement for regulating of Nagorno- Karabakh conflict”. It sounded, as if all of these 15 years of negotiations both sides did move in the opposite direction from the signing of frame agreement!?
Phrase appears to be beautiful and convincing, and together with the expression "they reached an important progress” is a serious occasion for nonresumption of the war. Ilham Aliyev can return to Baku by saddling "the important progress” and "direction of signing” and no one will be able to reproach him in the inability to hold his word. There is also tamed and fed press that will fuss; and friends, enemies of the war will support. And here few hours later of the Munich encounter end Russian mass media replete f optimistic titles, or for example, Azerbaijan agency " Vesti” even published details of understandings, according to which, the sides discussed "the cancellation of the corridor, which connects Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh”!!!
The American cochairman of Minsk group OSCE, who participated in a similar summit for the first time, also emitted the optimism: "I think, the way Presidents work with us was significant. Their desire to discuss fairly complicated and sufficiently contradictory points, and I am by being relatively new person in this process; assume that this impressed me most of all”.
On the background of this stage happiness somehow effaced expressions like "some questions remained open” or "were noted some definite difficulties”. Meanwhile as it is known that devil is always in details, about details sides did not come to the agreement. Even without any little details negotiation pierced against the major problem and agreement of it is impossible now: status of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijan attempts to return NKR within its borders, while the population of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic full of the determination to defend its statehood and territorial integrity, without any division of NKR on "Nagorno-Karabakh and around it”, to defend around the negotiating table or on the field of conflict.
However, does it disturb anyone today? It seems like mediators concerned only about one thing: to save the damp image of Aliev. Then, what about Karabakh… The main thing, so there won’t a war. Although the war is the shortest path to the origin the state, as we know. Or to the loss of it. But these are the problems of Azerbaijan and its President Aliev.