Few hours before the beginning of resolution №252 discussion in the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, the President of Turkey A. Gul telephoned US President B. Obama. Not hard to guess the conversation essence; however, the administration of the White House reported that Obama recommended Gul to expedite the ratification of Armenian- Turkish protocols. No one knows what Obama answered about the resolution, but again, not hard to guess it: "America- democratic country, where legislative authority is sovereign. I can’t order, but I will convey your concerns to the attention of Congress”. Or something like that. The aforesaid is more likely since the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the Committee Chairman Howard Berman and warned that the "Yes” vote could endanger the reconciliation process between Armenia and Turkey.
Well, hard to argue with Presidents and State Secretaries, although personally I have my own opinion: Turkey repentance before the Armenian people could expedite the reconciliation process between Armenia and Turkey much faster. Everything else is a political game that often pursues the short-term benefits. And, by the way, most of the times it’s far away from being honest.
Judging by the numerous comments, Turkey considers that this game tour they’ve lost. Their Ambassador has been immediately recalled from US. It means that Turkey will surely miss chance given by America to get rid of the bloody legacy. It is their right: each nation and each state is responsible for its choice. Whatever it was, but the Congress Committee determined its relation to the Armenian Genocide perpetrated by Turkey. Apparently, it didn’t have any obstacles from president's administration.
In fact, Barack Obama is the recognized leader of the US Democratic Party, the vast majority of its representatives voted in the committee for the resolution adoption. And if Obama is limited in its influence on the US Congress as President, then no one has repealed the party discipline. This decision could be made on the Party level, the issue is sufficiently serious. However, it hadn’t been done, and it means that deep down Obama is not against of the resolution adoption.
However, it doesn’t mean that B. Obama would equally indifferent react on the resolution discussions in the Congress. We still remember how Obama’s predecessor prevented the final resolution adoption already after its approval by the Committee on Foreign Affairs. However, it’s necessary to admit that the current situation is quite different than the situation three years ago. Armenian - Turkish protocols is only one of the pressure elements on Ankara. America needs to bring strategic changes in the foreign policy of Turkey.
US Interests
However the western world comments the modern political situation in the Near East and South Caucasus, but the America’s squeezing out process of this region should be recognized. This process had begun in the August 2008; when Russia clearly demonstrated to the entire world its intention to do not give positions to the overseas Varyags. First Georgian-Ossetian, and then Russian-Georgian wars, that lasted only five days radically changed geopolitical situation throughout the region. New (old) power announced itself loudly and firmly the way it used to do at the beginning of XIXth and then during XXth centuries.
Turkey tried to occupy positions ceded by US, it declared the intention to create "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform”, in the composition of it had to enter Armenia, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey itself. At this case Ankara, quite cautiously "forgot” about Iran. Then Turkey decisively strong began to declare its return to the Osmanizm policy that clearly showed Ankara’s attempts to exert its influence on the neighboring countries, repeatedly suffered Osmanizm. The outcomes of Turkish Neoosmanizm are: deteriorated Turkey - Israel relations, attempts to improve relations with Iran and Syria, as well as the interference in the sovereign affairs of Iraq and South Caucasus countries.
In former times the Osmanizm ideology appeared to suppress the national liberation movements of Ottoman Empire nations: Armenians, Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbians, and Arabs… As I’ve written "The Osmanizm ideology adopted by the current Turkish government perceives all not-Turkish people only as the object for the assimilation and/or the destruction. Osmanizm, with or without "neo” prefix is a policy of intolerance and hate; an ideology promoting the right to murder representatives of another faith, race, etc. this policy and ideology force "to be interested in neighboring countries”.
Changes in foreign and internal policy of Turkey worry not only its neighbors but also the European community. USA also didn’t remain indifferent because Turkish neoosmanizm signifies the collapse of Washington policy in the Near East and, especially, in Iraq, since Turkey has set the aim to suppress Kurdish national liberation movement not only in Turkey itself, but also to destruct Iraqi Kurdistan - the main US base in Iraq. In fact Turkey went away from the proclaimed before "European orientation” of its foreign policy. Ankara even contributed to the destruction of "Nabucco” plan, the gas pipeline, designed for the delivery of Central Asian natural gas to Europe. At the same time it signed the agreement with Russia about gas pipeline "South Stream” through its waters.
USA, could not allow Ankara to come out of their influence sphere. Turkey geographically locates on exceptionally important position, and loss of it for Washington could turn in great, and perhaps even irreplaceable geopolitical loss. The Armenian-Turkish protocols were created with the aim to restrain Turkey. However, protocols didn’t serve the intended role because of the unsteady position of Ankara’s government and the pressure of Azerbaijan. It is seems like the ruling tandem Gul- Erdogan would be glad to have "small losses”, but they had to sweat for the sins of their predecessors: Azerbaijan Republic illegally created by Turkey in 1918 now turned in heavy weights on Ankara.
What about Russia?
Let’s be objective: the recent improvement observed in relations between Russia and Turkey was in many ways forced by Moscow. Russia blocked by the Ukraine and rushed in search of enters to the Europe’s energy market had no another choice, except to use the new (? - L.M. -Sh.) foreign policy of Turkey. Signing the agreement with Ankara on the pipeline "South Stream” through the territory of Turkey didn’t serve to the economic nor foreign policy interests of Russia. Moscow didn’t have the other choice.
Today, after presidential elections in Ukraine and Yanukovich’s victory, situation radically changes: the Ukraine adequate energy policy would be able to considerably enrich both Russian and Ukrainian treasury. Moscow doesn’t need partner relations with the historical and civilizational rival, such as for centuries was Turkey for Russia.
Today Moscow has a unique opportunity to neutralize for a long time the rivalry of Turkey, that recently showed increasing claims on domination within the geopolitical (not state- administrative!) boundaries of Russia. Turkey’s domination claimed on the South Caucasus, Black Sea and on Crimea peninsula. Ankara skillfully used Russia’s weakness and unsettled relations between Moscow and some of the post-Soviet countries. Turkish behavior is understandable and explainable: it is amoral in geopolitics to do not use the existing opportunities. However, now Russia can not only win back its lost, but further strengthen its positions in the centuries-old, covered, or opened opposition with Turkey. Moreover, active Russia’s protection of its geopolitical interests could throw Turkey to the periphery of world and regional policy, turning it in the pariah state.
Following the above-mentioned principles of untapped opportunities in geopolitics, Russia can and must ensure peace of its southern boundaries. This is particularly important taking into account the undisputable fact that Turkey many years provokes Islamic radicalism in the Caucasus.
Epilogue
For over than thirty years each April 24th the US President appeals to the US citizens of Armenian descent with the words of sympathy. Every year the US Armenians with the mixed feeling of gratitude and pain listen the speech of their President. Every year Armenians of other countries hope for the recall of their President on their terrible sorrow, enduring pain, and sufferings. Let’s be frank: Russia’s Armenians deserve this attention more than others.
In fact, the Armenian Diaspora in Russia is twice big the US Diaspora. The majority of the Armenian Diaspora consists of the descendants miraculously survived the Genocide. Armenians always faithfully served the country that gave them shelter. Many Armenian names are written in the history of Russia forever: statesmen, marshals and generals, scientists, artists, poets, designers, doctors, teachers, artists. Some of them are written by the gold letters: M. Loris-Melikov, I. Orbeli, Artem Mikoyan, I. Aivazovsky, I. Bagramian and many other Armenian names.
Armenian and Russian nations (precisely nations) are the rarest case of centuries-old sincere friendship; there had never been any dark injustices between them. The Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation since their birth are strategic partners in spite of the enemies’ intrigues. Our friendship tested by centuries. It many times withstood the test of common challenges and victories with honor.
April 24th this year the entire world will commemorate 95th anniversary of the Turkey’s terrible crime-Armenian Genocide. Articles would be written, archive documents and eyewitnesses memoirs would be published. The population of Armenia will walk up to the sacred Tsitsernakaberd hill in order to lay flowers at the Memorial to Victims of Genocide, the Armenians from Argentina, Greece, France, Uruguay and many other countries will lay flowers at the monuments to their ancestors – innocent victims. What about Russia’s Armenians? Will they have a possibility to worship the memory of ancestors? Will they find place to lay a wreath? Will they hear the words of sympathy from their President?
Levon MELIK-SHAKHNAZARYAN
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