The President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan during his interview for "Euronews” channel appealed to Azerbaijan for signing agreement on the nonuse of force. "This would lay the foundation of confidence in Armenia and Karabakh; it would allow people to understand that Azerbaijan is ready to the conflict’s peaceful solution. Then, we would work on details…”. This appeal, met the aspirations of the people from all three sides of Nagorno-Karabakh’s conflict, could count on the understanding in Azerbaijan; however, many commentators and observers of this republic rushed unanimously to reject it. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave a sign for "mass non-acceptance of the peace” through its spokesman E. Polukhov, rejecting Sargsyan’s proposal. Same message of Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave installation for the smaller functionaries of Azerbaijan state propaganda: peace could come only after Armenian side will withdraw its troops from Karabakh.
This Azerbaijan’s position contradicts not only logic but also official Baku’s repeated statements about its desire on peace in the region. Azerbaijan today suggests unthinkable, impracticable, deliberate silliness: return to the prewar situation that became the basis for conflict. At the same time in Baku understand the impossibility of these projects. This means that Azerbaijan is not set up for peaceful regulations of Nagorno-Karabakh’s conflict.
In fact, hardly anyone in Azerbaijan seriously thinks that Nagorno-Karabakh Republic that during 19 years lives as independent country that defended its national sovereignty against Azerbaijan’s direct military aggression, that built democratic state, will agree to return to prewar status. Recall, that status was imposed on the Karabakh’s population by the will of third country’s party functionaries with the help of Bolshevism’s armed forces. Baku also understands that this circumstance laid a mine, which exploded in 1988. But, if they understand and still continue to insist on their demands, it can mean only one: Azerbaijan is not ready to the peaceful regulation of Nagorno-Karabakh’s conflict.
Why Azerbaijan is afraid of peace?
Azerbaijan Republic doesn’t actually need the peace in the region. Better to say that group of people usurped power in this republic doesn’t need peace. Since peace indicates the absence of external enemy same as possibility to scary people by the image of Armenian, translating arrows of public’s political interests on domestic issues. For Aliyev’s clan it’s like a death.
Today, Azerbaijan’s dominant clan feels privileged; its power is not in danger. In republic reign the orgy of corruption, rampant bribery, blatant plunders of natural resources. Emigration reached the unprecedented proportions: according to the "Yeni Musavat” newspaper, from Azerbaijan, in search of bread, left about four million people. Hard to believe this terrible, for small Azerbaijan, number, but statistics of rapidly growing Azerbaijani Diaspora in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc..., makes us believe to reviewers of Baku oppositional newspaper.
In Azerbaijan that exports natural gas, there are still entire regions that are not gasified, and in big number of already laid pipes gas doesn’t flow by weeks. The problem is simple and banal: the vast majority of rural population is unable to pay for its consumption. Electricity situation is not better.
Azerbaijan’s social problems could be listed long time: crowds of beggars on streets of Baku and other cities, mass unemployment, quantity of suicide threatening the mental health of entire population, including teenagers, dissidents’ persecution, priority of clans and regionalism, discrimination of national and religious minorities… All of this is on the background of fantastic and constantly increasing wealth of selected families.
Baku understands that the impunity of ruling clan can continue until the real or imaginary war threat hovers over Azerbaijan. Any protest movement brutally suppressed because of "wartime” demands, along with crimes of Aliyev’s clan and his cronies are justified by "wartime” demands. Azerbaijan’s pre-war situation is a license to plunder the population.
However, Azerbaijan is afraid of war.
Why Azerbaijan is afraid of war?
This question may seem rhetorical; war is undesirable phenomenon for the population of any state. At the same time, war could be initiated by the country with dominated national idea, when large part of citizens is ready to sacrifice their lives to implement it. In Azerbaijan there is no such situation, and it couldn’t be: people, including those, who lived on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh before the conflict, well aware that Artsakh belongs to Armenian people. The majority of population is interested in Karabakh problem only because it could threaten their sons’ life. It’s obvious why the most furious supporters of Azerbaijan’s aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh Republic are those paid "patriots” who live in the capitals of western countries, avoided military call during Karabakh war of 1988-94 and who are not in danger. Note also that vast majority of Azerbaijan’s non-Turkish indigenous peoples – (more than 30% of population number) - are not going to sacrifice their sons for the sake of implementing Turkic interests.
However, Azerbaijan’s fears of possible war renewal are not connected with citizens’ feelings. Azerbaijan is not accustomed to ceremony with purposefully transformed into cattle population. Problem is in the fact that war threatens the financial prosperity of ruling clan, since it capable to destroy the export opportunities of this republic. Aliyev and company are not intended to lose the "pipe of plenty” that regularly supplies their bottomless pockets by colossal profits.
Baku also realizes that war is able to deprive not only profits, but also power. Aliyev, no matter what he says "on public”, is well aware of the difference in training level between his own armed forces and armies of Republic of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh’s Republic. He understands that the renewal of military operations would lead to the war with number of losses no comparable with the war of 1988-94. This would be completely different level of war when Azerbaijan would lose at least few times more than 37 thousand killed. Moreover, Azerbaijan understands that there are no chances to restore lost in the first war positions. The "new” war surely would lead to the promotion of Armenian army to Kura River – Armenia’s historical border on the east.
War - is not only planes, weapons and rockets. First of all, it is a psychology of belligerent people. It would be enough to "budge” such settlement as Kazakh or Barda and then universal panic would sweep all Turks of Azerbaijan’s western regions beyond Kura River. They won’t have any hope on return. This syndrome got exacerbation through contribution of Azerbaijan shameless propaganda, constantly inventing stories about Armenian soldier’s cruelty. It’s possible, however, that this propaganda goaled to impose fear among Azerbaijan’s population.
For philistine who crushed by state terror and frightened by prospect for the war renewal more easily could be explained reasons of indefinitely delaying war. Despite bellicose statements that are integral part of Azerbaijan’s internal policy. Since Azerbaijan’s ruling elite understands better than anyone else: war, same as guaranteed peace threaten their family prosperity. That is why Serzh Sargsyan’s suggestion about nonuse of force agreement for negotiation period caused such panic in Azerbaijan.
Situation of "neither war nor peace” is advantageous for Azerbaijan’s leaders; since it allows them to rob their citizens with impunity. Azerbaijan doesn’t imagine other mission for the chair head.