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Even if it would be possible to establish lasting peace, the one who would forego internal readiness for the physical fight will eventually lead to death. 
Karl Jaspers 

Analysis of states’ geopolitical power makes possible to assert that there are two states in the region of Asia Minor and South Caucasus that could be distinguished out of seven. Armenia (under Armenia we mean the Republic of Armenia and Artsakh Republic) is in the second, weaker group, which includes all post-Soviet South Caucasus states; however, the aggregate consideration of crit ... Read more »
Category: Analytics | Views: 27340 | Added by: Грант | Date: 04.02.2011 | Comments (36)

The article was published year ago. Now published with some changes and additions) 

Sun-tzu 
The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand. With many scores one can win; with few scores one cannot. How much less chance of victory has one who gets no scores at all!
Best thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good. So, too it is bett ... Read more »
Category: Analytics | Views: 5420 | Added by: Грант | Date: 03.02.2011 | Comments (1)

Frankly, I thought for a long before writing on this topic. I thought not because I didn’t want to hurt Ilham Aliyev’s feeling and touch unkind memory of Heydar Aliyev; feelings of these people are completely indifferent for me. I didn’t want to reopen the wounds of mothers and wives; children of those young men who were forcibly driven from Azerbaijan into Armenian Artsakh Mountains, where they forever remained in unknown graves. Even more than that I didn’t want to awaken painful memories of parents among the indigenous peoples of Azerbaijan; their young and innocent children were sacrificed to the Moloch of Azerbaijani government’s Turkish interests.

To write about this is hard, but not to wri ... Read more »
Category: Analytics | Views: 1530 | Added by: Грант | Date: 20.01.2011 | Comments (6)

As far as I know, no one was interested on this issue until this day, at least out loud. Meanwhile, this is a civilized world accepted practice: state former president congratulates his successor with the election to the high position. In the case of Heydar and Ilham Aliyev, congratulations would be more than appropriate: Heydar Aliyev was the father of Ilham Aliyev and the person who refused to participate in the presidential race in favor of his son.  In order to find the answer to the headlined question we should get familiar with the preceding events of Heydar Aliyev’s death official announcement.
July 8, 2003 Heydar Aliyev was hospitaliz ... Read more »
Category: Analytics | Views: 2670 | Added by: Грант | Date: 05.01.2011 | Comments (2)

February 3, 2008 in German city Ludwigshafen was a fire in the apartment building; nine people died, mostly Turkish migrants. Almost all Turkish media reported that fire was an attack of German neo-Nazis. Turkish government made the political show out of death. Dead bodies were brought to Turkey by a special flight of Turkish Air Forces; state honors have been provided to all dead. 
Meanwhile, fire in Ludwigshafen claimed the lives of Alevis, religious minority severely disparaged in Turkey. Alevis community in Germany sharply opposed Erdogan's efforts to turn their tragedy in political advertisement, reminding Erdogan on the tragedy in Turkish city Sivas. July 2, 1993 raging mob of Turks set the hotel afire where Alevis tried to escape. That day ... Read more »
Category: Analytics | Views: 501 | Added by: Грант | Date: 15.10.2010 | Comments (0)

The proclamation of Azerbaijan Republic took place in late May, 1918 in Tbilisi. Indeed, this phrase is conditional, since no one neither seen nor read declaration of Azerbaijan Republic Proclamation. By the way, this fact let to change the day of Azerbaijan proclamation from May 27 on May 28, 1918. Hard to say what caused this "rejuvenation” of Azerbaijan Republic: however, until recently, the official date of Azerbaijan Republic’s proclamation was considered May 27. Probably, it’s due to the concealment of the declaration, where the new-born republic was called the East-Caucasian Muslim Republic (VZMR) (according to other sources - Azerbaijan Muslim Republic). 
Category: Analytics | Views: 495 | Added by: Грант | Date: 20.09.2010 | Comments (0)

In order to return to the New Middle East 

The last US combat brigade crossed the Iraqi border with Kuwait. More than 115,000 American soldiers left Iraq. Less than 50,000 troops of the renamed into "the brigade of aid and support” remained in the country. According to the withdrawal plan they will leave Iraq not later than the end of 2011. Military operation "Shock and Awe” begun 7 years that led to the death of about million of Iraqis and over 4,400 American soldiers comes to an end. War begins. 

There is no reason to remind that Iraq’s occupation by the American troops happened in spi ... Read more »
Category: Analytics | Views: 1006 | Added by: Грант | Date: 01.09.2010 | Comments (0)

One of the main components of negotiating process failures on regulating Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is mutual distrust between Armenian states and Azerbaijan. Here, it is worth to emphasize above-mentioned distrust often transforms into blatant hatred. These distrust and people’s hate become an insurmountable obstacle for the reasonable way out from the prevailed situation: leaders of all three states are deprived of the possibility to adopt a compromise solution without causing a mass protest with unpredictable, rather well predictable consequences. 

The ratio between these people towards each other could be described as the Armenian distrust to the Transcaucasian Turks and Turk’s hate toward Armenians. However, if Armenian distrust toward Azeris explained ... Read more »
Category: Analytics | Views: 1040 | Added by: Грант | Date: 31.08.2010 | Comments (4)

One of the major challenges for the post-Soviet Russia is the terrorist activity of entrenched Muslim gangs, representing various organizations of international Islamic extremism. This problem is coming from dashing 90th of the last century; lots of efforts were spent to neutralize it. Nevertheless, hard do not notice that Islamic extremism and terrorism in Caucasus structures till some extent going underground, but continuing to live and grow. ... Read more »

Category: Analytics | Views: 670 | Added by: Грант | Date: 18.05.2010 | Comments (0)

Since the end of April Nakhchivan’s issue doesn’t leave pages of Armenian, Turkish, and Azeri Mass Media. Politicians, political scientists and observers of three states in different ways and with varying degrees of optimism comment the statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Ahmed Davutoglu on the "rights and obligations” of Turkey regarding to Nakhchivan. Meanwhile Davutoglu statements identify new Ankara’s military-political game in the region, able to explode situation not only in Caucasus for a long time. This statement should not add any optimism first and foremost, to Azerbaijan, and to the Turkey citizens too. Even the very attempt to implement Turkey plans announced by Davutoglu will become the war catalyst with many ... Read more »

Category: Analytics | Views: 709 | Added by: Грант | Date: 13.05.2010 | Comments (0)

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